Feb 28: Forex Trading Commentary:

The current rise in the euro started at the Tokyo open Feb. 26/06 in the form of a hammer reversal formation on the hourly chart. I like to do my price projections after a major shift in price direction. A price projection after that swoon in price saw price rising to ~1920.

Coming into today's session, knowing that and seeing the attitude of MACD on the hourly chart (read, up), it was logical to assume that price would go on a tear, and race through all its pivot points to achieve the end of that price projection. It got as high as 1894.

In the news, the ECB's main refinancing rate could rise to as high as 3.25% by the end of this year, with a likely hike in the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% this Thursday. It is expected to be raised by an additional quarter percentage point in each of the following quarters of 2006, for a total of 100 basis points this year.

See today's chart at: feb 28 2006

read more